The basic steps in applying odds at the poker table are as follows:
1. Determine the number of discounted outs.
2. Calculate the pot odds. This is the size of the pot in relation to the bet.
3. Calculate the implied pot odds. This is the current pot plus the bets you
expect to win in relation to the current bet.
4. Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand
5. Determine your best strategy.
Let’s look at a few examples to show how to apply these steps.
A middle player calls and you raise from the cutoff with K♣ Q♥ in a $10-$20 game. The big blind calls and three players see the flop of T♣ 7♦ 5♠. The big blind, a tight rock who never bluffs, bets out and the middle player folds. What should you do?
• Determine the number of discounted outs. We assume your opponent has at least a pair since he never bluffs; therefore, you need a king or queen to improve, which is six outs. You would be drawing dead against TT, 77, or 55, unless you hit a runner-runner straight. Other likely holdings of your opponent include AT, KT, QT. and JT. In this case, a king or queen would not help against either KT or QT. It is doubtful that your opponent would call a raise preflop with K7, K5, Q7, Q5, T7, 75, or T5: therefore, you only need to discount your outs for the probability that your opponent holds KT, QT, TT, 77, or 55. One other consideration is what could happen if you hit the king or queen on
the turn. Your opponent could possibly win on the river by hitting two pair or better. You should discount your outs a little more for this possibility. To determine how much you should discount your outs, it is helpful to evaluate the probable hands of your opponent. Probable hands that you could beat if you improve include JJ, AT, A7, A5, JTs, and 99. Discounting outs is always a matter of judgment, but you might expect to win this hand 50% of the time when you improve, considering the possibility that your opponent might have a set, KT, QT, or improve on the river. Therefore, you should discount your six outs and play as if you had three outs.
• Calculate the pot odds. The total pot at this point is $75 (three players paid $20 to see the flop + $5 small blind + $10 bet on flop by the big blind): therefore, your pot odds are 7.5 to 1 for a $10 her.
• Calculate the implied pot odds. Do you expect to win more bets when the king or queen comes? You should win bets 50% of the time when you improve, but you will lose more bets the other 50% when your opponent has a better hand. A simplified assumption would be that all future bets break even.
• Compare the implied pot odds to the odds against improving your hand. In this case, we look at the pot odds since the implied odds are the same. The pot odds of 7.5 to 1 are compared to the odds against improving with three outs of 15 to 1 (see out chart).
• Determine your best strategy. The odds against improving are 15 to 1; therefore, we should fold since the pot odds are only offering 7.5 to 1.
Let’s discuss this hand a little further to show the importance of discounting outs. Many players draw to overcards on the flop hoping to pair up, and this example shows that this often is a big mistake. If we played our hand thinking we have six outs to the king or queen, our odds are 7 to 1 against improving. This compares favorably to the 7.5 to 1 pot odds; therefore, we would call expecting to make a
small profit. However, this assumes we would always win when the king or queen comes. As we discussed before, our opponent could very well have KT, QT, TT, 77, 55 or beat us on the river.
Some players also justify calling by saying that they have implied odds of winning more bets should they improve. This is true if your hand wins, although sometimes you won’t even collect more bets when your opponent folds on the turn to a bet or raise. The problem is that sometimes you will lose additional bets. If your king or queen comes on the turn, you will probably raise and then be faced with a reraise, if
your opponent has a set or two pair.